Fixed or Variable Mortgage? How Canada’s Economic Shifts Could Impact Your Decision
Christopher J. Collins • February 24, 2025
Navigating Mortgage Rates in an Uncertain Market
With Canada’s economy facing trade tensions, inflation concerns, and a potential slowdown, mortgage rates are in flux. Borrowers must weigh the risks and rewards of fixed vs. variable rates to make the best decision for their financial future.
What’s Driving Mortgage Rate Changes?
Several key factors are shaping the mortgage landscape:
Trade Uncertainty – New tariffs between the U.S. and Canada could push inflation higher, impacting bond yields and fixed mortgage rates.
Inflation Pressures – If inflation stays above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, rate cuts may be delayed, keeping borrowing costs higher.
Recession Concerns – If economic growth slows, the BoC could cut rates, making variable-rate mortgages more attractive.
Fixed vs. Variable: Which One is Right for You?
🔒 Fixed-Rate Mortgages:
✅ Predictable payments for peace of mind
✅ Protection from future rate hikes
❌ Typically higher initial rates
❌ Costly penalties if you break your term early
📊 Variable-Rate Mortgages:
✅ Lower starting rates with potential for savings
✅ Easier to break or refinance if needed
❌ Payments can fluctuate with rate changes
❌ Higher risk if inflation pushes rates upward
What’s the Best Move Right Now?
✔ Go Fixed if you want stability and protection from rising rates.
✔ Go Variable if you believe rates will drop and you can handle some risk.
✔ Consider a Hybrid Mortgage to get the best of both worlds.
Stay Flexible & Informed
Mortgage rates are unpredictable, and the best choice today may change in a few months. Working with a mortgage professional can help you navigate these shifts and secure the best deal for your financial future.
Need expert guidance? Reach out today to discuss your options!
How to Use Your Mortgage to Finance Home Renovations Home renovations can be exciting—but they can also be expensive. Whether you're upgrading your kitchen, finishing the basement, or tackling a much-needed repair, the cost of materials and labour adds up quickly. If you don’t have all the cash on hand, don’t worry. There are smart ways to use mortgage financing to fund your renovation plans without derailing your financial stability. Here are three mortgage-related strategies that can help: 1. Refinancing Your Mortgage If you're already a homeowner, one of the most straightforward ways to access funds for renovations is through a mortgage refinance. This involves breaking your current mortgage and replacing it with a new one that includes the amount you need for your renovations. Key benefits: You can access up to 80% of your home’s appraised value , assuming you qualify. It may be possible to lower your interest rate or reduce your monthly payments. Timing tip: If your mortgage is up for renewal soon, refinancing at that time can help you avoid prepayment penalties. Even mid-term refinancing could make financial sense, depending on your existing rate and your renovation goals. 2. Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) If you have significant equity in your home, a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) can offer flexible funding for renovations. A HELOC is a revolving credit line secured against your home, typically at a lower interest rate than unsecured borrowing. Why consider a HELOC? You only pay interest on the amount you use. You can access funds as needed, which is ideal for staged or ongoing renovations. You maintain the terms of your existing mortgage if you don’t want to refinance. Unlike a traditional loan, a HELOC allows you to borrow, repay, and borrow again—similar to how a credit card works, but with much lower rates. 3. Purchase Plus Improvements Mortgage If you're in the market for a new home and find a property that needs some work, a "Purchase Plus Improvements" mortgage could be a great option. This allows you to include renovation costs in your initial mortgage. How it works: The renovation funds are advanced based on a quote and are held in trust until the work is complete. The renovations must add value to the property and meet lender requirements. This type of mortgage lets you start with a home that might be more affordable upfront and customize it to your taste—all while building equity from day one. Final Thoughts Your home is likely your biggest investment, and upgrading it wisely can enhance both your comfort and its value. Mortgage financing can be a powerful tool to fund renovations without tapping into high-interest debt. The right solution depends on your unique financial situation, goals, and timing. Let’s chat about your options, run the numbers, and create a plan that works for you. 📞 Ready to renovate? Connect anytime to get started!
Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario October 29, 2025 The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks. While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027. In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover. Canada’s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady. The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually. CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon. With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast. The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on January 28, 2026. Read the October 29th, 2025 Monetary Report
